More strikes over bailouts

Exclusive Analysis predicted the following risks in the week beginning October 1.

Greece: More strikes over bailouts

After delegations from the EU and IMF returned to Athens to resume talks over the conditions for releasing the next bailout tranche, protests in Athens are likely to continue. Civil servants could resume occupying the ministries of finance, development, justice, labour, health, interior and agriculture. At the same time trade union strikes are expected on October 5^th and 8^th, which will affect airports, ports and cities. The upheaval will result in unrest on a severe level, likely to trigger violent confrontation between protesters and the police.

Cameroon: President Biya’s Re-election

President Biya, who has been in power in Cameroon for nearly 30 years, is likely to secure another mandate in the presidential vote on October 9^th. His re-election will be met with violent protests. Discontent over Biya’s reign has grown since he removed f constitutional term limits in 2008, rising living costs, high youth unemployment and pervasive corruption. Still, the opposition is unlikely to win even in the event of uncorrupted elections, as it faces leadership struggles. In the case of post-election riots, opposition supporters will target assets associated with the government and Biya’s ruling party, RPDC. In reaction the army will likely respond violently, presenting severe risks of collateral damage and property risks.

Philippines: Airline Strike

Disruptions to outgoing and incoming flights in the Philippines will occur this week due to employee protests. Philippine Airlines (PAL) announced plans to outsource its airport services and call centre operations from October 1^st, which triggered an employee strike on September 27^th. PAL is the national carrier and has the most number of domestic and international routes within and to the Philippines. The outsourcing plans are expected to lead to 2,400 employees losing their job. The commencing PAL protests will affect freight and cargo operations, check-in processes and flight operations.