The likelihood scenarios are computed on probabilities of trends for main risks and opportunities for 2007, and are based on mining the internet and expert analysis over the last year. They show:
1. Preventing the escalation of the Israel-Palestine/Arab issue from becoming a wider Middle-East conflict = 82%
2. Balancing the country risk and opportunity of China with India = 74%
3. Ethics, inter-faith dialogue and living with differences across the world = 72%
4. Escalating rhetoric and potential crisis with Iran over nuclear proliferation and attendant global energy pricing instability = 64%
5. Climate change impact on numbers of hurricanes, typhoons, floods and water shortages worldwide = 58%
6. Ongoing conflict in Iraq with rising Islamic sectarian issues = 54%
7. Passenger aviation and transportation crisis within the civilian sector with requirement for limited military intervention = 54%
8. Energy security and high volatility in the price of oil, gold, US dollar and euro = 54%
9. Countering climate change through the deployment of alternative energy solutions = 44%
10. Spread of pandemics, including avian flu, and/or biosecurity hazards = 36%
11. Rising philanthropy and social entrepreneurship solutions to counter complex global challenges = 36%
12. Countering climate change through environmental regulation = 32%
13. Behaviour modifying advancements in search engines, semantic web and web 2.0 deployment = 28%
14. Behaviour modifying advancements in technology/biotechnology with genetics, informatics and nanotechnology = 26%
15. Countering climate change by shifting priority to put sustainability ahead of profits, and accounting for sustainability = 25%
16. Country risk of a key EU country suffering prolonged civil unrest, strikes and paralysis = 24%
17. Countering climate change by paying heed to IPCC, UNCCC, Kyoto protocol warnings and directives worldwide = 22%
18. Countering climate change through consumer activism and carbon emissions labelling of products = 20%
19. Major disruptive innovation caused by new technology such as quantum computing or cryptography = 20%
20. Rising alignment of philanthropy in giving and fiduciary responsibility in making ethical investments = 20%.
