The perfect space storm

As far as doomsday scenarios go, space born perils are up there with the most iconic. In Danny Boyle’s 2007 movie Sunshine, actor Cillian Murphy’s character is sent on a dangerous mission to reignite the dying sun. In reality solar scientists claim that today’s sun is ramping up to an energy peak. Far from fading, the 24th observed solar cycle will be the most intense period of solar activity in living memory, scientists say.

The upswing in solar activity, which peaks in 2012, means more powerful flares, so called coronal mass ejections, which propel intense solar radiation at millions of miles an hour through the solar system. When these high energy blasts of solar charged energy hit the earth, as they sometimes do, they disrupt our magnetic field and can cause powerful geomagnetic storms and electrical surges—the effect of which can disable power grids and electrical transformers or knock out satellites and destroy telecommunications.

1859 superstorm

“Some scientists who predict space weather are comparing this cycle to the great storm of 1859,” says Ashutosh Riswadkar, liability business director, Zurich Services

Corporation. The solar storm of 1859, also known as the solar superstorm, or the Carrington Event (after the astronomer who spotted the solar flare that triggered it), was the most powerful storm in recorder history. Astrophysicists describe it as the “perfect space storm”. That year numerous sunspots and solar flares were observed on the surface of the sun. Sunspots are localised regions of intense magnetic fields (roughly 100 times as strong as the average fridge magnet). These magnetic field intertwine and sometimes release violent flares of solar energy. On September 2, 1859 the sun released a mammoth solar flare. For almost a minute the amount of sunlight emitted in the region of the flare doubled. The flare released a coronal mass injection, a massive cloud of magnetically charged plasma, in the direction of earth. Usually the flares take three to four days to arrive. This one took 17 hours.

The superstorm unleashed an extremely intense and fast moving magnetic field that overwhelmed the earth’s own magnetic field, allowing charged particles to penetrate our atmosphere. At the time of the Carrington event humanity’s technology was rudimentary—the telegraph wire, which had been around for 15 or so years, represented the height of it.

“After the event when telegraph operators unplugged their wires there was so much geomagnetic power that the telegraphs could still operate without any external electricity,” explains Riswadkar. “The storm sent such a powerful current around the earth’s atmosphere it affected large portions of the globe with varying effects. Telegraph offices caught fire and the aurora borealis were seen in equatorial regions.” It is usually unheard of to see the Northern Lights phenomenon so close to the equator.

Likely effects

In comparison with 1859 today we are much more dependent on modern power grids and telecommunication. The interconnectedness of today’s technology and communication networks contains the potential for a far greater disruption that is not limited to one particular region, he says. Almost all economic activity relies to some degree on either electricity or communications technology and satellite systems orbiting the earth are far more vulnerable than telegraph wires. A Natural Academy of Sciences report in January estimated that a Carrington sized storm could cause $1-2 trillion of damage to the US economy alone.

“Technology in 1859 was basic so there was no potential for the cascading failures that we could see with a similar event today,” says Riswadkar. “A chemical plant, for example, could have some processes, like exothermic reactions, that rely on power. If they don’t have stand-in generators a loss of power could result in significant damage. Those companies should consider having emergency responses in place because they need the ability to shut down their processes in an orderly manner.”

He is not alone in his fears. The Department of Homeland Security considers solar storms a national security threat. And there is a department in the US called the Space Weather Prediction Centre, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, charged with monitoring solar activity and issuing warnings. NASA has a breed of satellites dedicated to observing the sun’s activity, these form the basis of an alert system which can give between 15 and 60 minutes of warning. About enough time to switch everything off.

Another benchmark exists for the likely effect of a coronal mass ejection on earth’s technology systems. In March 1989 a much less intense solar storm than the one observed in 1859 knocked out the power grid in Quebec for nine hours. The blackout affected six million customers and cost Hydro-Quebec more than $10m. Overall the solar storm is estimated to have cost the Canadian economy $6bn.

Probability

The region of earth likely to be most affected depends on where the solar magnetic pulse hits. Polar regions, like Canada, the US or Scandinavian countries, are more prone to its effect. Researchers at McGill University in Montreal have attempted to predict the risk of failure of the US bulk power grid due to a solar storm. They say the likelihood of a damaging solar storm occurring can be estimated by looking at events in the past. According to a blog on the McGill website in the last 67 years there have been eight major solar storms. These occurred in March 1940, September 1941, July 1959, March, November and October 1960, March 1989 and October 2003. Confirming the consensus view that most magnetic storms on earth happen during the equinoxes in March and September. “Given the frequency of these solar storms it can be estimated (using the Poisson distribution) that there is a probability of ~5% of a storm occurring,” said the Canadian research. It concluded that the probability of a grid failure is not low and that the result could be catastrophic.

Grid failure

In 2003 a congressional hearing in the US noted that a nationwide bulk power grid failure could be caused by a very large coronal mass ejection interfering with the earth’s magnetic field during a solar storm. Insights into the consequences of an electrical blackout can be found by looking at the costs associated with a power blackout affecting the North East of the US and Canada in August 2003. The total accumulated cost of this event was estimated at $70bn, even though power was restored within a week.

Early warnings

Early warnings sometimes help people prepare for the impact of a solar storm. The committee above noted that in 1998 a geomagnetic storm was headed to earth but this time thanks to data from space born sensors forecasters were able to alert electrical power operators 40 minutes before the storm hit earth. In response electrical power utilities were able to divert power and increase their safety margins on certain parts of the grid to prevent an overload. In 2003 thanks to NASA’s solar observations telecommunications companies were able to manoeuvre their satellites away from a solar storm’s target trajectory. This may have saved some of the satellites from damage.

Satellites

Solar storms can cause disturbances in the earth’s upper atmosphere that can affect the orbital path of spacecraft, creating operational and tracking problems and sometimes shortening the useful life of a satellite. In May 1998 the loss of telephone pager services to 45m customers was caused by a solar storm. During the first gulf war in 1991 military forces reported high frequency radio communications interruptions, which may have been due to solar storms. And in January 1994 an extended period of high electron levels caused by solar flares resulted in the failure of two Canadian communications satellites, which interrupted telephone, television, and radio service for several hours.

As a result of their position in space satellites are among the most vulnerable of earth’s technology systems to solar storms. A major superstorm such as the one in 1859 could cost $30bn a day to the US electrical power grid, but incur costs to satellite systems of up to $70bn a day, according to Nasa. There are over 936 operating satellites in space, worth an estimated $200bn to replace. They play a huge role in international telecommunications and represent nearly $225bn in revenue to the telecoms industry every year. NASA estimates over $2bn worth of satellite technology was damaged or destroyed during the last sunspot cycle. There is no provision for “Acts of God” such as solar storms in satellite insurance. Insurers deem that if a satellite is sensitive to space weather effects, this will show up in the long term reliability of the satellite, which would cause the insurer to apply a higher premium to the remaining life of the satellite.

Aircraft

The airline industry is also profoundly affected by solar storm activity. Planes rely heavily on satellite and ground based communication systems which allow air traffic controllers to talk directly to pilots but are also particularly vulnerable to geomagnetic disruptions. Airlines are required to maintain communication channels with their aircraft at all times. But navigation systems, which rely on sophisticated communication networks, can sometimes be affected by solar storms. In addition planes flying between the US and Asia, for example, often take shortcuts over the North Pole, where passengers are more exposed to solar radiation.

To avoid the potential safety risks posed by the effect of solar radiation on passengers, as well as the communication problems, airlines sometimes reroute their flights to lower latitudes where the risk is slighter. Periods of increased solar activity cost the airline industry millions in rerouted flights which burn more fuel than intended. Speaking at the congressional hearing mentioned earlier, Henry Krakowski, vice president of corporate safety, quality and security for United, said: “In our five years of flying over the North Pole, United has found the need to alter flight plans on an average of two to three times per month. In some cases, when the event is severe we will alter flights sometimes already in the air.” Rerouting a Chicago to Hong Kong flight, for example, adds 30 minutes onto the flight time, burns an extra 3,000 gallons of fuel and costs the company $10,000, he said.

“There is a great deal of recognition of the threat posed by solar storms and some businesses in the primary impact industries have put in place mitigation measures,” says Riswadkar. He insists, however, that more awareness and knowledge of the threat is needed beyond the primary affected industries. “In the event of a solar storm of any significant magnitude the effect could be very severe because of the vulnerability and interconnectedness of our technology systems. The main thing for all companies to remember is to be aware of the risk and stay tuned for more information as it becomes available so they can take appropriate action in a timely manner.” Our body of scientific knowledge of solar storms is only a few decades old, which means a lot of the information is still a matter of debate amongst different groups of scientists.

Solar storms are a low probability high impact event, which means a company’s best protection is a robust business continuity and emergency response plan.

See also:
Video: Satellite shows solar eruption
Space weather warning issued by ASIC