Gaddafi's strategy increases risks to civilians and critical infrastructure, says a leading forecaster
Colonel Gaddafi will most likely try to force the rebels and international coalition forces to battle him around key oil infrastructures and inside urban areas, according to Exclusive Analysis.
The political risk forecasting company released a update on the Libyan war situation.
On March 18, US, British and French military forces launched their bombing campaign against the forces supporting the Libyan leader Colonel Gaddafi.
Military jets and cruise missiles targeted command and control structures in Tripoli, air bases and defences as well as military units.
Exclusive Analysis predicted that the bombing would assist the rebels and enable them to move westwards out of the city of Benghazi. However without further offensive support from the Coalition the rebels are unlikely to defeat Gaddafi’s better trained and equipped army, said the consultants.
For the purpose of propaganda and as a defensive strategy Gaddafi is likely to strengthen his units around key population centres (including the oil infrastructure), warned Exclusive Analysis. This will increase the risk of civilian casualties.
“Gaddafi's ground units have reportedly occupied the Nafoora oil field south of Tobruq, and there is no information on the fate of the workers there. The Msilla field has also reportedly been occupied,” said EA’s report.
“It is highly likely that Gaddafi is prepared to inflict damage on infrastructure or force rebels to fight him around key infrastructure in order to blame the coalition forces for the damage. This raises risks to refineries, energy facilities and export terminals,” concluded the report.
