Conflict risk intensifies in Middle East

Twelve countries in the Middle East and Africa were rated “extreme risk” for conflict in Maplecroft’s third annual Conflict Intensity Index.

The uprisings of the Arab Spring have accounted for the deadliest conflicts recently. Egypt, Libya and Syria are rated with the most severe risk category alongside India, Afghanistan, Cote d’Ivoire, Iraq, Pakistan and South Sudan, according to the report, which was developed as a tool for multinational corporations to assess ongoing trends for conflict and potential risks to operations and investments.

Libya, which rose from 120th in last year’s index to joint 1st this year, has a death toll running into the tens of thousands, making Libya’s civil war tragically the deadliest conflict of 2011.

Conflict exponentially increases the risk of doing business within a country, as operations are disrupted and employees and assets are endangered

Maplecroft Analyst Jordan Perry

The index published by global risk analysis firm Maplecroft, combines conflict intensity data collected and analysed over three years. While it was primarily calculated using the number of fatalities caused by conflict in each country, it considers a broad range of conflict between states, state security forces, rebel militias and different ethnic and religious communities.

“Conflict exponentially increases the risk of doing business within a country, as operations are disrupted and employees and assets are endangered,” commented Maplecroft Analyst Jordan Perry. “This threat was all too apparent to the oil majors in Libya, as they evacuated employees in response to the violence. Ongoing monitoring of political risk…is essential for companies to ensure business continuity.”

While Syria was ranked relatively low at 51st in last year’s index, the country’s death toll continues to rise significantly with the ongoing clashes between anti-government protesters and security forces of President Bashar as-Assad.

It is worth noting that India, the highest ranked of the BRICs countries, is currently facing significant risks from Islamic terrorism. India has alongside with the Middle East, north and central Africa consistently remained most at risk over the last three years.