JLT warns of the risks to Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey posed by refugees leaving Syria because of the conflict
Syrian refugees present a complex set of challenges for the wider Middle East region, as they increase the risk of unrest and radically alter demographics, warned risk specialists at JLT.
Between 70,000 and 100,000 people have been displaced since the Syrian uprising began in March, with more than 20,000 fleeing to Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan, according to UN estimates.
A long-term conflict in Syria and the consequent economic rifts could breed resentment amongst Jordanian citizens towards the refugees – exacerbating religious tensions and leading to unrest.
Visas are not required to cross these borders and Syrians are streaming directly into neighbouring cities without controls, warned JLT, although Jordan has established a small refugee camp on the border with Syria.
Jordan lacks the economic capacity to accept large numbers of refugees, even with foreign aid assistance, said JLT.
In addition, the removal of the Assad regime could pave the way for the rise of The Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, predicted JLT.
Another neighbouring state, Turkey, is in the strongest position economically to take refugees from Syria, according to the risk advisor.
Lebanon on the other hand has a fragile political system that may be undermined by an influx of refugees, possibly plunging the country into civil conflict.
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