Some 44% of countries at risk of terrorist attack

The world is under continued threat of terrorist attacks or political violence, according to a map measuring the risk exposure of these events in 200 countries.

The annual map, developed by Aon Risk Solutions, found that 44% of countries have an identifiable threat of terrorism, with the worst affected being Afghanistan, India, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, Somalia, Syria, Thailand and the Yemen.

The Middle East and North Africa region witnessed the highest proportion of countries with a terrorism and sabotage peril, at 85%.
Lingering after-effects of the Arab Spring on regional security and stability remain evident. The Middle East is the most unstable region, with 64% of its countries attaining high or severe risk ratings, reflecting terrorism, unrest and conflict risks.
However, Europe has the most positive regional outlook, with 47% of the countries with lowered risk ratings this year. This reflects the “receding civil unrest associated with the financial and economic crises”, Aon said. Limited incidents of terrorism outside of Greece and Northern Ireland accounted for lowered risk scores

In addition, 11 countries displayed an increased risk rating including Argentina, Egypt and Jordan, but 19 countries had lower risk ratings including Germany, Italy and the UK.

But despite the improvements in 19 countries, data and analysis reflected by the map suggest continued and growing awareness is needed for businesses looking to expand.

The three perils measured indicate the different forms of political violence most likely to be encountered by businesses:

• Terrorism and sabotage;
• Strikes, riots, civil commotion and malicious damage to property;
• Insurrection, revolution, rebellion, mutiny, coup d’etat, war and civil war.

Aon Risk Solutions’ crisis management terrorism head Neil Henderson said: “Terrorism is having an increasing impact on today’s global organizations and terrorist attacks are now regarded as a foreseeable risk. An attack not only on, but near an organisation’s premises can result in human casualties, property damage, business interruption, legal liability issues and long term damage to brand and reputation. The Aon Terrorism and Political Violence Map is one of a range of Aon tools that allow data and fact-based insight to support and advise companies in their efforts to be increasingly resilient in today’s quickly evolving and volatile environment. This insight allows our clients to plan overseas expansion or international growth.”

Risk Advisory head of the intelligence and analysis practice Henry Wilkinson added: “The global economic crisis, shifting geopolitical balances and two years of unusually high levels of civil upheaval present challenges and opportunities for businesses looking to expand. North and West Africa and the Middle East stand out as regions of increasing risk. Civil wars in Libya and Syria in particular have contributed to violent risks in nearby countries. Egypt returns to the highest risk rating this year due to persistent civil tumult, political instability and terrorism. While Northern Europe has seen some improvements, evident in the U.K.’s improved rating, fiscal and economic pressures mean businesses in Southern European countries still face a higher level of risk associated with civil disruption.”