The top three threats to watch out for this week
StrategicRISK and Exclusive Analysis present the first in a series of weekly risk forecasts.
India
A truckers’ strike in India causing trade and cargo disruptions across the country starting August 18: Over 2.6m striking truck drivers removed their vehicles from the roads in India’s southern states (Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Karnataka) in demand of lower road tolls and fuel prices. Despite the scale of it the strike is likely to last no more than 3 days but supplies will be seriously affected.
Spain
Yet more street fighting and property damage in Madrid in response to the Pope’s visit: The Pope arrived in Spain on August 18 for a four-day visit. On August 17 thousands of people rallied in Madrid’s Puerta del Sol to protest against the public expense of the Pope’s visit (reportedly costing Spain €50m). Fighting between the police and protesters led to at least 11 injuries and 8 arrests. Further protests are likely in Madrid but there will be a large police presence.
Egypt
Gunfights on the border between Israel and Egypt. Israel will also shell Gaza: On 18 August five Israeli soldiers were shot dead on a bus. Israeli authorities say the bullets were fired from the Egyptian side of the border in Sinai. Egyptian security forces have already sent another 1,000 soldiers to secure pipelines in Sinai and are likely to seek to engage armed criminal and Bedouin groups in response. This raises risks of gun battles in the interior of the south Sinai peninsula. Israel is likely to launch incursions into Gaza and bombard the Strip from the air. This could result in transport problems and road closures in Egypt.
