WTW report warns of marine & offshore energy hybrid warfare targets

The threat to vessels, undersea cables, and offshore oil installations has increased due to the availability of advanced weapons and the willingness of certain states – particularly Russia and Iran – to disregard international maritime laws.

That is the message from WTW in a new geopolitical risk report from the insurance broker.

‘Gray zone aggression’, meaning hostile action used to weaken a country by means short of traditional war, according is a major theme of the latest “Political Risk Index” paper from WTW.

Understanding t1§he threats

WTW’s research identifies three primary types of gray zone flashpoints.

The first of these are military conflicts and rivalries, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or tensions in the South China Sea.

Secondly, fragile states, such as Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq were highlighted as potential flashpoints.

Lastly, “ideological polarization” was pinpointed as a concern, such as through political interference in Latin American elections.

The latest edition of the index included input from WTW’s marine and aerospace teams, sectors that the broker described as “notably vulnerable to gray zone attacks”,

They were joined by the WTW Research Network and the broker’s crisis management team, focused on addressing gray zone aggression and global security risks.

“Without insurance, many ships will not sail and planes will not fly, so improving our understanding of gray zone risks is vital for the protection of people and assets and the health of global commerce,” said Samuel Wilkin, director of political risk analytics, WTW.

These attacks appear to have soared in recent years, for many reasons, Wilkin warned.

“One reason is that countries that are deeply interconnected by globalisation increasingly find themselves in adversarial relationships, and these deep interconnections offer many avenues for gray zone action, especially actions directed at globalised businesses,” he said.

“Another reason is that new technologies have enabled gray zone actions, including cyber-attacks and remote attacks by drones,” he added.

The index follows WTW’s annual political risk survey published earlier this year, which found that 69% of respondents were impacted by geopolitically-related supply chain disruptions in 2024, including gray zone attacks on global shipping.

Examples of hybrid warfare include destruction of critical infrastructure, state cyber-attacks, weaponisation of migration, sponsorship of violent non-state actors, disinformation campaigns, and declared or undeclared economic sanctions.

The report also observes an increasing trend in gray zone activities, partly driven by rising middle powers operating with limited military budgets.

“Hybrid warfare is likely to continue to rise and evolve, so insurers need to be able to understand the implications of ambiguous gray zone activities to properly assess risk,” Wilkin said.

Insurance consequences

The broker anticipated insurance consequences of gray zone risks.

“Gray zone attacks causing exclusions and cancellations of insurance cover lead to disruptions and rerouting, affecting businesses reliant on timely shipping. However, trade disruption insurance offers some recourse for impacted companies,” WTW said.

Further findings of the report were also focused on marine assets.

“The global shadow fleet, which has grown exponentially since Russia began using it to export oil, was identified as another threat in the report. The vessels lack standard P&I insurance, do not undergo regular maintenance, and habitually alter their AIS signals,” WTW warned.

The threat to the aerospace sector is also significant, the intermediary highlighted.

“There is an increasing possibility for the aerospace sector to become a key gray zone target, and attacks such as GPS jamming and spoofing are already happening,” WTW added.

The latest iteration of the WTW Political Risk Index can be downloaded here.