Data from the OECD indicates a turn in the business cycle could be on its way
Leading business indicators for June 2009 show signs of improvement in the economic outlook for the developed world.
There were strong signs of recovery in Italy and France as well as signals that the business cycle could be on the verge of an upswing in Canada, Germany, the UK and the US, according to the figures.
In Japan tentative signs of improvement also emerged, according to composite leading indicators (CLIs) released by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
The OECD CLIs use industrial production data to predict turning points in business cycles approximately six months in advance. Changes in CLIs tend to precede changes in the overall economy.
“Changes in composite leading indicators tend to precede changes in the overall economy.
The figures showed tentative signs of improvement compared with a month earlier but were still considerable lower than one year ago.
In Europe the CLI increased by 1.5 points in June but stood 1.6 points lower than a year ago.
The CLI for the US increased by 1.3 points in June but was 7.2 points lower than a year ago.
