Violence in Iraq will decrease

Violent risks in Iraq are likely to decrease despite a recent series of attacks, according to specialist intelligence agency Exclusive Analysis. This is because Iraq is becoming less of a battleground for Iranian - Saudi interests.

Head of Middle East and North Africa forecasting, Zaineb Al-Assam, made the observation after a series of coordinated IED attacks in five large Iraqi cities.

She said, “Though the attacks coincided with the anniversary of the US invasion, it is more likely they were timed to discredit the Iraq government ahead of the Arab League Summit scheduled to take place in Baghdad from 27-29 March 2012.”

Al-Assam continued to say that security is set to improve.

Indicators for more peaceful times include the re-instalment of the Saudi ambassador in February 2012, and talk of reopening an oil pipeline through Saudi Arabia in order to bypass a potential Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

“Although lulls in violence will likely be interrupted with spates of bombings, the overall security environment is likely to improve. Civil war in Syria is providing an alternative arena for militant activity, while increased sanctions and international pressure on Iran are allowing the al-Maliki government to gain greater independence from Iran.

“This is increasingly reflected in improving relations with Saudi Arabia, which had been a key supporter of Iraq’s jihadist groups after a Shia-led government came to power post-2005.”

Indicators for more peaceful times include the re-instalment of the Saudi ambassador in February 2012, and talk of reopening an oil pipeline through Saudi Arabia in order to bypass a potential Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iraq’s increasingly independent stance reduces the risk that Iraq would resume its prior role as a battlefield between Saudi-backed Sunni groups and Shia militias supported by Iran.

“Terrorism risks are likely to decrease in the one-year outlook, thereby reducing the risk of IED attacks targeting civilian and government assets, and Shia religious sites. Similarly, IED attacks against Western-owned assets, hotels, restaurants and oil and gas infrastructure are unlikely to reach the levels witnessed in 2007 and 2008,” said Al-Assam.