Violent shifts in Mexico

Recent trends in Mexico point to a shift of violence to the Guerrero, Veracruz and Jalisco regions, and away from the previous hotspots of Ciudad Juárez and Tijuana, experts at Exclusive Analysis predicted.

Violent risks in Mexico are usually related to the drug cartels, particularly Mexico’s powerful Sinaloa cartel.

The Sinaloa has increasingly won power over the past months, gaining the upper hand in its disputes with the local Tijuana and Juárez cartels, said Exclusive Analysis. It also appears to be extending its enormous production of methamphetamine.

Violence in Ciudad Juárez has decreased by about 36% in 2011 to 1,974 killings

The cartel’s success in Tijuana and Juárez might have led to the decrease of violence in these states, Director of Violent Risk Forecasting at Exclusive Analysis Paul McGrath said. Violence in Ciudad Juárez has decreased by about 36% in 2011 to 1,974 killings, according to numbers released by Exclusive Analysis.

In other states, particularly Guerrero, Veracruz and Jalisco, violence is expected to increase in the coming months. This is due to the emergence of smaller gangs who separate themselves from the big local cartels.

“Killings in Veracruz state increased almost tenfold in 2011, to around 500. This upwards trend is likely to continue in 2012 as Los Zetas compete for control with rival cartels such as Sinaloa, as well as New Generation Jalisco and its ‘Mata-Zetas’ armed wing,” MacGrath said.

The increased use of weapons can turn uninvolved civilians into accidental targets

“Jalisco state, especially the city of Guadalajara, is also likely to experience increases violence in 2012, as Los Zetas seek to gain a foothold in this strategically important smuggling area, which has traditionally been a stronghold of the Sinaloa cartel.”

Civilians are hardly targeted during violent incidents between gangs and cartels. MacGrath noted however that the increased use of weapons can turn uninvolved civilians into accidental targets too.

“Increasingly bold tactics like major gun and grenade battles in city centres and the occasional use of car bombs, raise collateral risks significantly.” At least 170 bystanders were reportedly killed in 2010.