2010 will be a year of uncertain transition for business. The causes of the global recession are now well understood. The contours of the economic recovery, by contrast, are far from clear, and are likely to vary widely by country and region in developed and emerging markets alike.
Although G20 members have not challenged the fundamentals of free trade and the movement of goods, labour and capital, the return to growth will be partial and protracted, and over-dependent on governmental stimulus measures, which may not last indefinitely. Our lead article pinpoints how a structural rise in unemployment will represent a key macro-political and security risk in 2010, even in states such as China, where growth has remained relatively solid. Insecure governments may target business, particularly foreign investors, to cover the unemployment lag through official pressure to assist state-owned partners or to keep uneconomic production lines open. Companies will need to ensure that their political intelligence is second to none to anticipate any potentially unwelcome trends.
To read the full white paper, please download the PDF attachment opposite; RiskMap Report 2010
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RiskMap 2010
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